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The Great Power Game
India in the New World
India is beginning to settle into its new role as an important player in global relations. Its unique situation as the world’s largest democracy situated in a volatile region between the West and China could make it indispensable on the world stage. Will India forge ahead in this new role, or try to conform to existing definitions of power?
New Dehli’s Democracy Offensive
India and the promotion of global democracy
What is the future of India’s democracy promotion? India’s own healthy democracy, its security and diplomatic interests, opportunities in South Asia and beyond, and its growing economic and military clout give it the confidence to promote more democracy -- around the world. Hurrying India into doing anything rarely works.
Fighting Climate Change
Risks to India’s national security
India finds itself on the frontlines of climate change. But the failures of Copenhagen show the need for India to change course in dealing with the problem. India needs to demand more accountability from the biggest polluters and work together with developing countries to form a more equitable solution to the global climate crisis.
Getting Governance Right
Can the EU be effective after accession?
The failure of the E.U. to change the modus operandi of successive Greek governments should not be repeated in Eastern Europe, which has an assertive, though small civil society to build upon.
“I no longer see any point in it.”
The retired four-star general, Klaus Naumann, on the conscription debate
Germany—one of the last European countries with a draft—is in the midst of a fierce discussion over ending compulsory military service. The conservative-liberal coalition has already cut mandatory duty to just six months. The current defense minister wants to abolish it altogether—to save money. What does a professional army mean for the Berlin Republic?
Tangled Up in Blue and Gold
For too long Brussels has been hamstrung in the Black Sea region
The woeful inability of the European Union to develop a common strategy for the post-Soviet sphere is nowhere more apparent than in Georgia. E.U. policy in the South Caucasus is reactive rather than proactive. This failure limits E.U. influence and enables other regional actors, namely Russia and China, to call the shots.
Has the West “lost” Turkey?
Pax Ottomanica is Making Things Happen in the Balkans
Turkey is improving relations with its neighbors, and diplomatic efforts in the Balkans have been widely successful. With E.U. relations at a stalemate, and recent tensions and misunderstandings with Israel and the US, is Turkey pursuing a new foreign policy direction?
“The Blue Card will not change much for Germany”
Interview with German IT industry expert Bernard Rohleder
29.07.2010
Germany’s IT industry needs more skilled workers from abroad. Will the E.U.-wide introduction of a Blue Card system help? Bernhard Rohleder, Director General of BITKOM, says the Blue Card can only be a small part of the wider solution.
Tension on the Korean Peninsula
Is there a security role for the European Union?
The Six-Party Talks are at a stalemate. The European Union, with its traditional soft diplomacy, could prevent North Korea from taking an extreme course of action. As tensions continue to rise, the E.U. could contribute significantly to the long-term security of the Korean Peninsula.
Blue Card Blues
Strategies to recruit highly skilled workers to the European Union
Europe is aging. To meet the need for skilled labor, EU members have agreed on principles for steering the immigration of highly skilled workers. But the Blue Card regulation looks set to fall short as EU member states continue to focus on national policies. Some proposals for escaping this impasse.
Against Sustainability
On the new paradigm of the last humans
Environmentally compelling, economically profitable, socially just. It is no wonder that “sustainability” is on everyone’s lips. However, on closer inspection, globalization’s new guiding concept reveals a deeply problematic, concretely disenfranchising, even destructive potential. A critique.
The Legacy of Expulsion: Context
The forced migration of Germans from Poland
A debate about the massive expulsion of Germans from Poland in the wake of World War II is again trying German-Polish relations. The renewed controversy surrounds the planning of the Center Against Expulsions in Berlin. Understanding the heated emotions about this issue requires knowing the historical context of the forced migration of millions of Germans.
The Legacy of Expulsion: Controversy
Erika Steinbach and the Center Against Expulsions
The conflict between Poland and Germany over expellees is becoming ever more emotional. What is at stake is the collective memory of Europe and the victory of an ultimate narrative of the Second World War and its consequences. At the center of the controversy is Erika Steinbach—but her role depends on other, deeper concerns.
Nine Myths about State Bankruptcies
Going bust is not always the end of the world. In fact, it has its advantages
Eurozone governments did everything in their power to prevent Greece’s bankruptcy. It remains unclear, though, why Brussels and other capitals are so worried about the default of an E.U. country. Bankruptcy is probably the best way to rescue a national economy from excessive debt. The current discussion is rife with misunderstandings.
The Tribulations of Citizenship
Eastern and Western Europe go different ways on this key issue
After decoupling from the Soviet Union, Eastern European states revamped their citizenship laws. Unlike Western European laws, which generally support integration and multiculturalism, these new laws tended to entrench conceptions of nationality based on ethnicity, exacerbating tense regional relations. The difference between Europe's two halves will not be easily reconciled.
India’s Bid
Including the developing nations in a fair regime
The growing influence of the G-20, and of India as an international economic actor, is a step toward a more fair and equal global economic regime. But building this regime requires patience and principled engagement. The cooperation of the United States and India shows that this is a real possibility—and gives us reason for optimism.
A New Great Game
The E.U., China, and the era of energy imperialism
The dominant conflict in geopolitics in this century is the scramble for energy, raw materials, and water. The nationalism, colonialism and imperialism of the 19th century is back. Europe has to engage strategically in competition for scarce resources as the world population—and its energy demands—continue to grow.
Resigned to Defeat
Köhler missed one opportunity after another
Whether in domestic politics, the financial crisis, or the Afghanistan conflict, Horst Köhler held back from fully engaging with issues that could have benefited from his leadership. The president's departure will only damage his legacy more.
Goodbye to Berlin
Stepping Down, Germany’s President Ups the Stakes for Merkel’s Government
The resignation of Germany’s president, Horst Köhler, has aggravated the crisis that is dragging down Germany’s government. The scramble is now on to find a successor. This person will have to begin repairing the damage.
Stumbling to a Start
Is the E.U. prepared to have a genuinely common foreign policy?
The European External Action Service (EEAS) is supposed to unify and consolidate Europe’s foreign policy. But the competing demands of national governments, European institutions, and individual actors threaten to derail the new institution—and suggest that the European Union is collectively unprepared to have a genuinely common foreign policy.
Return of the Dictatorships?
New democracies, however fragile, can defend themselves from autocracy
The optimism that accompanied the 1990s’ wave of democratization has faded. Many autocratic regimes are likely to persevere. However, fears of a democratic rollback are unfounded. There will be no concerted swing back to an era of dictatorship—but nor can we expect another burst of democratization.
Renewing the Aged Alliance
A new NATO strategic concept goes public
Once upon a time NATO’s successive strategic concepts spun out each era’s military theology. And once upon a time the strategy was a closely guarded secret. No more. The 2010 blue-ribbon draft that was just unveiled is aggressively public. Elite and popular feedback on it is being solicited far and wide prior to November's alliance summit in Lisbon that will prescribe alliance strategy for the next decade.
China’s Resource Diplomacy
The paradox of rough neighborhoods
Conventional wisdom suggests that states that rely on hydrocarbon imports have an inherent interest in the political stability of producer states. China’s resource diplomacy suggests otherwise. High political risk allows Chinese energy firms to tap markets others avoid. But there is a catch: political instability jeopardizes supply security.
Servants of the Great Moloch
The men and the institutions that kept the Cold War alive
Any work of history reflects the times in which it was written. Studies of the Cold War produced shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union tend to be optimistic that a fresh start might be possible after the grand confrontation's peaceful end. More recent works, written in the shadow of America’s costly military ventures in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Kremlin's return to authoritarian tendencies, have a darker hue.
A Dangerous Hegemon
Why Iran must not be allowed to go nuclear
In the international debate over Iran’s nuclear program, the argument for containment—rather than prevention—is gaining currency. But the emergence of a nuclear Iran would be a dangerous option, destabilizing the fragile Middle East and delegitimizing the non-proliferation regime. This month’s NPT review must not waste the chance to prevent this outcome. (UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe)
Brazil and the Bomb
Vexing nuclear activities in South America
Brazil is almost certainly developing nuclear weapons. There is no definitive proof yet. However, the country’s earlier nuclear weapons programs and the policy of President Lula da Silva’s government suggest that Brazil’s quest for power and international recognition will ultimately lead her to discard her commitment to non-proliferation and put an end to President Obama’s vision of a world free of nuclear weapons.
Greek Tragedy—or Farce?
Merkel's scientific method may fail her this time
For the last decade, Angela Merkel’s low-key approach to power has been fascinating to watch. Highly effective yet free of drama, Merkel once described her understanding of the role of chancellor as that of a “shepherd leading the flock from behind.” Now, though, the Greek crisis has given cause for criticism that she is leading Germany—and the E.U.—astray.
Eyes Wide Shut
Visionary hubris provoked the Greece-euro crisis
The Greek debt crisis and the threat of national bankruptcy have severely tested the European Union and its common currency. Exactly this magnitude of snafu happens when policymakers give free reign to visions. Europe’s politicians ignored the economic writing on the wall in the interest of “higher” principles—and paid a very steep price.
Danube Blues
Hungary's rightists look inward
In Hungary’s April 11 first-round parliamentary elections, the center-right Fidesz party, led by former prime minister Viktor Orban, beat out the ruling Socialists. The far-right Jobbik party also made large gains, reflecting the country’s frustration with corruption and its lagging economy.
Between Thatcher and Kohl
Angela Merkel’s new course puts German interests first
The proverbial handbag may not yet be back on the negotiating tables in Brussels, but after glancing through last month’s European press one could be forgiven for thinking that Margaret Thatcher—or at least her Teutonic equivalent—had returned to the European Union.
Hope for a Chain Reaction
"New Start" and the Nuclear Summit could lead to Russia-West convergence
It may not mean zero nukes today, or even in the life of our grandchildren. But President Barack Obama's first foreign-policy success of the "New Start" pact to cut American and Russian nuclear arms cuts--following his first domestic-policy success of healthcare--surely revives both his presidency and the world's hopes.
Afghanistan on Trial
The Bundestag investigation into the Kunduz bombing raises uncomfortable questions for Germany
More is at stake than a few politicians’ scalps in Germany’s on-going parliamentary investigation of the Bundeswehr’s deadly air strike in northern Afghanistan last September. The performance of key government players could demonstrate whether German politicians are capable of dealing with the new military role they have prescribed for their country.
The Battles of Turkey’s Elites
The Anatolian middle class is threatening the Kemalists’ power
There is a struggle underway for political power in Turkey—one that some view as a clash of Islamists against secular Turks. But this battle is not religious: It is for political dominance in 21st-century Turkey. Burgeoned by economic success, a new pious Muslim elite has ascended to the fore of the political stage, and is challenging the Kemalist elite.
America's Asian Ambitions
Under Obama, multilateralism is still instrumental
The Obama administration’s overtures to Asia have been unmistakable. Does this leave the United States’ old ally Europe out of the equation? Not necessarily, argues German analyst Josef Braml. But Europe’s best offer may be in helping foot the bill for a global NATO.
Europe’s Green Diplomacy
Global climate governance is a test case for Europe
The Lisbon Treaty provides new tools for Europe to combat climate change. Europe will have to figure out how to put the European External Action Service to use in order to avoid another failure of global environmental leadership like that in Copenhagen. Obviously, leading by example is not enough.
Hands Off Our Shackles, Please
The self-constrained republic: German security policy falls short of what it should and could achieve.
The momentous decision made by a German colonel in September to call in a NATO air strike on fuel trucks hijacked by the Taliban could become a test of Germany’s maturity 20 years after regaining complete sovereignty. But this incident, and its handling, has already turned a harsh spotlight on the shortcomings of German security policy.
The Bomb for Beginners
A do-it-yourself guide to going nuke in a few easy steps
Building a nuclear weapon has never been easier. NATO’s Michael Rühle provides step-by-step instructions for going nuclear, from discretely collecting material to minimizing the fallout when caught. These simple steps have worked for the likes of Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea, among others. The nuclear club is open to your country, too.
Rethinking Iran
Handling Iranian NPT non-compliance
The May review of the NPT will inevitably address the case of Iran. The key to handling the issue wisely and keeping Iran at the table is to distinguish NPT non-compliance from the flouting of UN resolutions. Iran must show, through regional diplomacy, that it does not seek nuclear weapons. Greater realism can yield political and economic advantages.
Balkan Tango
The EU's disjointed policies compound Bosnia's paralysis
Bosnia is backsliding into political chaos and possibly even renewed ethnic violence. Failure for the European Union in Bosnia will rightly be seen as a resounding blow to the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. First, Europeans need to allign their Bosnia policies. For this they need U.S. help, whether they like it or not.
Europe’s New Faces
The EU still has a long way to go to become a top global power
The post-Lisbon European Union can finally establish itself as a serious player in a multipolar world order. It has the potential to develop a foreign policy combining political, economic, and military elements. But will Brussels make the most of Lisbon? In the end, it is still the member states that call the shots on foreign policy.
